Market Perspectives March 9, 2017

Country News

Australia: The barley production estimate was raised by 2.4 MMT (23 percent) to what would now be a record crop of 13 MMT. (Western Producer) 

China: The nation’s second largest corn producing province, Jilin, is asking for larger subsidies from the central government. Beijing had tried to push the responsibility of farmer support to the provincial level but removal of the central government’s support has pushed prices below the forecasted level. As a result of the surpluses, the China National Grain and Oils Information Center says that as of March 1, domestic corn was priced 60 yuan ($8.68) less per ton than the landed cost of U.S. No. 2 corn. It now expects China to import just 1 MMT of corn this year. The government is dreaming up all kinds of ways to dispose of the large surplus of corn from ethanol, to sweetener, to plastics. (Reuters; FT) 

Russia: Corn production 2016/17 reached a record 15.3 MMT, a 16 percent increase. The Federal Statistics Service says about a third of it will be exported. (Bloomberg) 

South America: USDA raised its estimates for corn production to 37.5 MMT in Argentina and 91.5 MMT in Brazil. Some private forecasters believe the crops are even larger but USDA’s latest forecast was above the average of the predictions by the trade. (Reuters) 

South Sudan: A scarcity of food has caused a 150 percent increase in the price of sorghum, leading local producers to increase their sowing of the staple crop. (Daily Monitor) 

Ukraine: Europe’s third largest agricultural exporter, Ukraine, intends to raise cargo transportation tariffs by 25 percent this summer. Grain transportation rates in Ukraine have grown by 88 percent over the past three years. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Railways has still been unable to provide grain hopper cars in sufficient quantity. (World Grain; Philippines News Agency) 

Zambia: At 3 MMT, the Grain Traders Association of Zambia says this is the only southern African country to produce a surplus of corn this past year and, unless the government lifts the export restriction, grain holders will run out of storage space. (Bloomberg) 

Zimbabwe: The state-run Agricultural Marketing Authority has $62 million to buy corn from farmers and has been told to raise an additional $80 million. Farmers have planted 55 percent more corn this year after only delivering about half of the domestic requirement of 2.2 MMT. The government pays farmers $390/MT, or 2.67 times the current value of corn on the world market. (Bloomberg)