Ocean Freight Comments
Transportation and Export Report: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting: The question being asked now is, have we hit bottom yet? Dry-bulk markets are starting to look worse than most retirement accounts. One has to question how aggressive the paper traders are going to be selling the Baltic indices lower from current levels. The freight charts look depressed out through April and then turn sharply higher in hope that things will improve. Capesize vessel rates are close to record lows. This is going to have dramatic implications for dry-bulk and container vessel owners. The only market doing well is the crude oil sector, due to the high demand for storage space.
On the port side of things, there are reports of disruptions and delays at some Argentine ports and Russia is rumored to be holding back on the issuance of phytosanitary certificates for some exports. There is also talk of some Black Sea countries wanting to hold back/hoard wheat for fear of shortages. These are crazy times.
