Market Perspectives – March 25, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts corn conditions as 22 percent good/excellent, unchanged from a week ago. It pegs total output at 44 MMT, down from the initial outlook of 47 MMT and the 51.5 MMT produced last year. Exports are pegged at 31.5 MMT, down 1 MMT from an earlier estimate. The Corn & Soybean Advisor kept its forecast of 45.5 MMT corn production unchanged. (Reuters; Refinitiv)

Brazil: The second crop corn planting is nearly complete, with a quarter of the crop planted outside the optimal window. There is caution that late planted corn in Mato Grosso where half the Safrinha crop is produced could suffer from inadequate rainfall. Surging basis indicates that some prior contracts for corn could get washed out. The Corn & Soybean Advisor kept its forecast of 105 MMT total corn production unchanged. (Reuters; AgriCensus; Ohio’s Country Journal)

Japan: Feed compounders are shifting to rice, wheat and barley as corn prices rise, lowering the corn import estimate to 15.75 MMT. The import demand estimate for sorghum has also been lowered to 320 KMT. Barley imports are unchanged at 1.25 MMT. (FAS GAIN)

Mexico: USDA says high prices incentivize grain production with corn at the average 28 MMT of output and limited by available area for planting. However, producer group representative Juan Pablo Rojas says corn production will be no more than 24 MMT. A late February government estimate by SIAP calls for 26.9 MMT of corn production. Contrary to government predictions, Rojas says direct payments of up to $380 apiece to smallholder corn farmers will not increase output. He also says the government’s ban on glyphosate will increase production costs. USDA says sorghum area expanded slightly and will net 4.7 MMT of output. Corn imports will be 16.8 MMT and sorghum imports will be 500 KMT. (FAS GAIN; Reuters)

South Africa: Favorable weather and increased planted area makes a survey of crop analysts believe that the Crop Estimates Committee will raise forecasted corn output to 16.289 MMT, a 6 percent rise over last year. Corn exports will rise by 40 percent to 3.5 MMT. (Refinitiv; USDA)

Turkey: The Turkish Frain Board purchased 115 KMT of corn for March-April delivery. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Grain exports are 23 percent lower than the same time last year with 15.43 MMT of corn and 4.05 MMT of barley moved thus far. (Refinitiv)