Market Perspectives – March 22, 2018

Country News

Argentina: Entre Rios is the fourth largest maize producing part of Argentina and it is bracing for the driest crop in 90 years. Production will fall 38 percent in that province. Overall, Rabobank says the country’s corn production will fall by 9.5 percent to 33 MMT. (AgriCensus; RaboBank)

China: State-owned ChemChina bought Syngenta and now it has entered into a joint venture called Xianlong Biotechnology Co. that will develop and promote the domestic sale of GMO corn seed. China is targeting 2020 for the first ever Chinese production of GMO corn. The corn consumption forecast in China for 2018 was raised by 1.5 MMT to 224 MMT, with higher industrial usage a driving force. (Reuters; Xinhua)

EU: A 25 percent punitive duty on corn was included in a 10-page retaliation list to be imposed against the U.S. for its steel and aluminum tariffs. About one percent of U.S. corn exports went to the EU last year. (AgriCensus)

Mozambique: Pests including caterpillars and fruit flies have destroyed crops including more than 3,000 hectares of maize production. (Reuters)

Paraguay: Sonia Tomassone of the Capeco grain chamber says that adverse weather will knock corn production down to 4.1 MMT, versus 4.5 MMT last year. Planted area will be lower but yields will be higher. (AgriCensus)

Saudi Arabia: Corn consumption will climb 12 percent to 4.45 MMT, with most of the volume imported from the U.S. (59 percent), Argentina (33 percent) and Brazil (the balance). Corn is filling the vacuum left by falling domestic barley production and a 300 KMT drop in barley imports. (USDA)

Ukraine: The price of corn is on the cusp of a 45-month high after touching $209/MT. Demand is expected to rise in the comings weeks. Prices could reach $220/MT as some farmers hold back supply while demanding more money. However, buyers are also holding off against high offers in the $205-$210/MT range, causing some bids to retreat. (SPGlobal; AgriCensus)