Market Perspectives – March 16, 2023

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires grain Exchange estimated the 2022/23 corn crop at 36 MMT, a 1.6 MMT reduction from its last estimate. (Reuters)

Brazil: Corn exports to China have plummeted as the U.S. and Ukraine take over supplying that market. A survey of analysts reveals expectations that corn planted area will expand by 4.4 percent and with higher yields should result in a crop that is 126.63 MMT. Corn sowing in Mato Grosso is near completion. Export association Anec says corn exports in 2023 will hit a record 50 MMT. Ethanol production from corn in 2023/24 will be six billion liters, up 36.7 percent versus last season. Corn ethanol’s share of the total ethanol market will be 19 percent, versus 13.7 percent in the current season. (Reuters; Refinitiv; AgriCensus)

Bulgaria: Drought caused 2022 corn production to fall 26 percent to 2.55 MMT and barley output to drop 11 percent to 625 KMT. As a result, corn exports are down 81 percent and barley exports are off 76 percent. Assuming better weather, production will improve in 2023. (FAS GAIN)

EU: Slow demand has caused corn prices to drop $10/MT. The French spring barley crop is developing ahead of average according to FranceAgriMer. French barley exports exceeded wheat moving through the port of Rouen due to Chinese demand. (AgriCensus)

Jordan: Government agency MIT purchased 50 KMT of barley for shipment in September. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: Feed miller FLC bought 68 KMT of corn with at least some priced at $318.99/MT plus $1.50/MT surcharge for additional port discharges. MFG booked 135 KMT of corn for August arrival. FLC bought July corn and KFABU acquired 68 KMT of corn for August arrival. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Ukraine: APK-Inform says farmers are starting the new campaign with only 35 percent of the herbicides and pesticides that are needed. (Reuters)