Market Perspectives – June 28, 2018

Country News

Argentina: A 24-hour general strike by the workers confederation CGT paralyzed grain shipments. Trade unions are demanding wage increases due to inflation and oppose the government’s latest agreement with the IMF. Although the strike was short in duration, the political unrest has lasting effects. (FarmLead)

Brazil: Favorably dry for the next two weeks, the safrinha corn crop nonetheless continues to be downgraded as it gets harvested. The government forecasts a harvest of 58.2 MMT but the firm Agroconsult has lowered its estimate from 57 MMT to 55.2 MMT. The consultancy kept its corn export forecast of the crop at 28 MMT despite the smaller crop and freight rate uncertainty.

The corn export season has started but farmers are holding back, not wanting to pay the newly increased freight rates. The National Confederation of Agriculture says that operations have slowed by half and that collectively, the increased freight rates are causing corn and soybean producers to pay 500 million reais ($132 million) more in daily transport costs. Farmers will have little choice though since storage is filled with soybeans. This could trigger a drop in the FOB price of corn. Meanwhile, there are 70 vessels waiting to discharge in ports. Delays are adding 135 million reais ($35 million) in demurrage costs.

The government has handed off the settlement of the transit cost dispute to the judiciary, which was scheduled to meet with the parties on 28 June. (AgriCensus; Reuters; MercoPress)

China: The corn auction saw its lowest uptake to date with just 18.6 percent of the corn offered going to purchasers. (AgriCensus)

EU: The heat and dryness is most negatively impacting Germany. Weather has eased in France, but corn conditions continue to falter. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Morocco: Low plantings will cause the barley crop to fall by 21 percent. (AgriCensus)

Russia: Dryness is putting corn and barley yields at risk. CWG International says three-fourths of the corn crop is suffering from the heat and there is a lack of rain for the next two weeks. A fund seeking to auction off 2,700 MT of feed barley found no buyers. (AgrCensus; Sovecon; Reuters)

South Africa: The country’s corn exporters ousted the U.S. from the Vietnamese market with the sale of 63 KMT. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: FLC and KOCOPIA bought additional corn and NOFI and MFG bought 200 KMT at tender. Corn buying for 2018 could be complete by August. (AgriCensus)