Market Perspectives – June 27, 2019

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says that heavy rains have slowed barley plantings. Corn exports have also been slowed by the rain as it prevented deliveries from farms to ports. The delay in June deliveries could lead to record exports in July. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: The second crop corn harvest is now 19 percent complete, but exports have slowed as wet weather has raised quality concerns, plus a port workers strike has begun in Santos. Meanwhile, rising CBOT prices are enabling July 2020 Brazilian corn to trade at a discount. (AgriCensus)

China: The Ministry of Agriculture says that the Fall Army Worm is now present in 19 provinces covering 333,000 hectares of corn production area. The country purchased 60 KMT of corn from the U.S. as domestic demand fell 28 percent on a week to week basis. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Europe: Spain remains the top feed importer. (AgriCensus)

Mexico: Wandile Sihlobo of the South African Agricultural Business Chamber says that Mexican white corn exports are likely to double in 2019/20 due to demand in Africa. (Bloomberg; USDA)

Morocco: Barley imports are more than double the level previously thought. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: The government’s Crop Estimates Committee is predicted to raise its corn production forecast for 2018/19 to 10.95 MMT, up from the 10.90 MMT in its May estimate. Favorable weather has been beneficial to yields. (Reuters)

Sub-Saharan Africa: Severe weather in the region may lead to Tanzania exporting 1.7 MMT of corn. That would be more than triple its previous peak of 500 KMT back in 2013/14. Sales will include 700 KMT to Zimbabwe and 1 MMT to Kenya, if it has enough corn. Zimbabwe may import 1 MMT of corn and imports by Mozambique are at a 14-year high. The region will import a total of4.8 MMT of corn, the highest demand in three years. (Bloomberg; USDA)

Ukraine: Corn exports are nearing USDA’s predicted level and the Ministry of Agriculture reports no change in its estimate for barley production though other crops have improved. (AgriCensus)

SAGO tendered for 900 KMT of feed barley and paid 14.5 percent less. (AgriCensus)