Market Perspectives – June 10, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that with 34 percent of the corn crop harvested, late planted fields are showing better than expected yields. Sorghum production in 2020/21 will increase 73 percent year-on-year. A seven-hour strike over getting covid vaccines this past week impacted grain exports. Meanwhile, shipping bottlenecks have caused upriver basis to fall to new lows. Eighty percent of farmers believe the government will raise export duties, which will shift production from corn to soybeans. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Brazil: CONAB says total corn production will be 96.392 MMT, versus a 106.413 MMT estimate in May. Some analysts say the corn crop is at 92 MMT, though some are forecasting a total below 90 MMT. USDA lowered output estimate of 2020/21 corn production to 98.5 MMT, a reduction of 3.5 MMT. The overall condition of the safrinha corn crop was downgraded from 23 percent poor to very poor to 35 percent in this lowest category. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) says that state-wide yields are the lowest in four years and the production estimate could drop more. Precipitation has been half the usual level and high prices are the one consolation to farmers. The value of the Real rose 3.4 percent, the strongest weekly finish in a year and a concern for Brazilian exporters. (Reuters; Corn and Soybean Advisor)

China: The trade believes that China could import 30-32 MMT of U.S. corn in 2021/22, versus 23 MMT last year. However, the China National Grain and Oilseeds Center says domestic corn production will be greater due to higher planted area. And the China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE)  indicates corn demand for feed will be down 3 MMT due to substitutions with the corn import estimate kept at 20 MMT. (Reuters)

EU: The European Feed Manufacturers’ Federation (FEFAC) says that compound feed production was stable in 2020 at 164.9 MMT, limited by the impact of Covid and animal disease outbreaks (HPAI) but better than the forecast last year. Corn prices are currently high on short supply. The French winter barley crop is rebounding this year on above average yields. The average yield of 6.41 MT/ha surpasses the five-year average and production will be up 19.3 percent over last year, though below the five-year average. (Reuters; World Grain)

India: Corn exports mostly to Southeast Asia are the highest since 2013 with 400 KMT scheduled for shipping in June/July. (Reuters)

Jordan: The state grain buyer tendered for 120 KMT of feed barley but ultimately did not make any purchases. (Reuters)

Mexico: Corn imports will increase due to larger cattle feed demand. (Grupo Consultor De Mercados Agrícolas)

Russia: Farmers have planted 2.9 million hectares of corn, which is on par with last year but ahead of expectations for the new season. Barley plantings or 95 percent complete and cover 7.3 million hectares, versus 7.8 million last year. (Reuters)

Ukraine: Old crop corn supplies are nearly exhausted. (AgriCensus)