Market Perspectives – June 1, 2023

Country News

Australia: Trade Minister Don Farrell says China’s review of its tariffs on Australian barley is headed in the right direction. (Refinitiv)

Argentina: Farmers have increased their sales of corn by 8.7 percent to 570 KMT for the latest week. On a cumulative basis, 11.8 MMT of corn has been sold, down 52.2 percent from the same time last year.  A corn export protocol has been amended to facilitate sales to China. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 26.6 percent of the corn has been harvested. (Fastmarkets; AgriCensus)

Brazil: Harvesting is in its final stretch and Deral cut its estimate for Paraná second crop corn production to 14.1 MMT. Conab says overall corn harvesting is less than one percent. Imea says falling corn prices are aiding ethanol crush margins. The consultancy Safras & Mercado pegged the total corn crop at 136.9 MMT; AgRural’s estimate is 127.4 MMT; StoneX raised its estimate for the second crop by 2 percent to 102.9 MMT. (Reuters; Nasdaq; AgriCensus)

EU: The EU Commission has lowered its estimate for barley production to 52 MMT from 52.2 MMT a month ago and lowered its maize production forecast by 300 KMT to a total of 64.1 MMT.  Maize imports for the current marketing year were raised by 500 KMT to 24.5 MMT but held steady for the new marketing year at 17 MMT. EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski has proposed extending the temporary import ban on key commodities from Ukraine until at least October. (AgriCensus; MarketScreener)

Russia: The base price for calculating the export tax on barley and corn will be raised, which should lower the tax amount. (Reuters)

South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee raised its forecast for corn production to 16.2 MMT, which is lower than USDA’s estimate. GrainSA says South African corn has been cheaper due to a weak rand and this has boosted exports to China. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Despite an extension to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russia is preventing grain exports from Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that the deal will collapse unless his country’s exports of grain and fertilizer were unhindered. (Reuters)