Country News
Argentina: The Rosario Grain Exchange says high local reference prices will compel farmers to increase the area planted to corn in 2021/22 by 5 percent to 7.7 million hectares. If average yields are achieved, total corn output will increase by 8 percent to 55 MMT. The barley planted area will also increase by 5.1 percent to 1.3 million hectares and an output boost of 9.8 percent to 4.9 MMT. Grain shipments out the Parana River will have 40 percent reduced loads for several weeks due to low water levels. (Reuters; AgriCensus)
Brazil: Conab warned of crop failure in at least three states from drought and then frost impacts. The late season frost only added to the level of disaster in the corn crop. IMEA says the corn harvest in Mato Grosso is now 73 percent complete and yields are failing, but AgRural has made no change in its forecast. Yields range from a high of 115 bushels/acre in the best areas to zero in the hardest hit. Domestic corn prices are the equivalent of US$8.50/bushel. At least 30 shiploads of corn have been purchased from Argentina to fulfill domestic Brazilian livestock needs. Brazil’s corn exports are the slowest in six years whereas corn imports comprise 25 percent of supply. Despite the current tight supply situation, the country’s largest coop named Coamo is plotting getting into corn ethanol production. (Reuters; Soybean & Corn Advisor; AgriCensus)
China: The government’s multiple actions including advising farmers against feeding corn, expanding the production area and adding grain output to the macroeconomic control targets evidences the deep deficit in feed grains. China’s Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) reduced forecast corn usage in feed by 3 MMT to a total consumption of 182 MMT. Meanwhile, the National Grain & Oils Information Center (NGOIC) expects corn imports in 2021/22 to reach a record 28 MMT. Flooding in China has impacted 25 percent of crop areas including corn though NGOIC says it will only be a minor impact and rain boosts yields. The Center’s Li Xigui says there will still be a record 28 MMT of corn imports this year despite some small cancellations. Foreign reporters were ordered not to report on the flooding and its impact. NGOIC says domestic corn production will increase by 12.8 MMT to a total of 274 MMT. Corn prices are depressed due to grain imports and the use of wheat and rice as feed substitutes. Demand is slack at the government’s corn auctions. Major western grain supply companies say that China’s corn import needs will be large, “repeat and be sustainable.” Feed demand in 2021/22 will increase by 3.6 percent. China has already booked 12.5-13.0 MMT of corn from the U.S. and 4-6 MMT from Ukraine for 2021/22. ARC estimates China’s corn import needs at 29-33 MMT, with 18-24 MMT coming from the U.S. (Reuters; S&P Global Platts; Wall Street Journal; Refinitiv; AgriCensus)
EU: The barley harvest has slowed as Germany’s major farm group says rains are causing damage. (AgriCensus)
India: Low domestic demand and high world prices are boosting India’s corn exports, according to USDA. (AgriCensus)
Mexico: Grupo Consultor De Mercados Agrícolas reports that Mexico imported 9 MMT of corn in the first half of 2021. (AgriCensus)
Russia: Barley exports have surged but still lag on a year-on-year basis. Meanwhile, the corn production area is stressed by heat and drought. (AgriCensus)
South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee says corn production is up 7 percent year on year, with a total output of 16.4 MMT. (AgriCensus)
South Korea: FLC bought corn privately from Cargill at $314.99/MT. (AgriCensus)
Ukraine: Grain exports are accelerating amidst harvest progress with the lack of moisture a factor. (AgriCensus)