Market Perspectives July 26, 2013

Country News

European Union: Favorable growing conditions across Europe have caused yield predications for barley and corn to go up, according to Bloomberg News. Barley yields are now forecast to total some 4.78 MT/hectare, which is up from a previous outlook of 4.68 MT/hectare, and last year’s total of 4.38 MT/hectare. Corn yields are expected to increase to 7.22 MT/hectare, which is up from 7.13 MT/hectare predicted in June, and last year’s total of 6.08 MT/hectare. 

India: The monsoon has been a boon to India’s crops, dispelling the likelihood of drought this year, reports Reuters. Flash floods have occurred in Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, but no major damage to crops was reported. The rains have brought especial relief to parts of India’s south and west, where severe drought prevailed last year. Corn planting has seen an uptick this year following a governmental initiative to increase crop diversification, as the crop requires less water than other Indian staples such as rice and cotton. The 2010/11 crop year in India was record setting at 257 MMT.

Indonesia: Because of increased feed demand and reduced domestic production, corn imports are expected to double from last year’s levels to total some 2.8 MMT, according to Reuters. The Indonesian Feedmills Association had previously predicted that imports would total 2 MMT in 2013. Indonesia imported 1.55 MMT of corn in 2012.

South Africa: White corn for December delivery fell by 1 percent to $236.22/MT, reports Bloomberg News. Yellow corn fell by 1.7 percent to $217.35/MT.

Additionally, Reuters reports that South Africa will likely cut is corn forecast for the fifth consecutive month due to continued drought. The South African government’s Crop Estimates Committee reduced its forecast to 11.375 MMT, which is down from last year’s total harvest of 11.83 MMT.

Spain: Europe’s largest grain importer has the potential to harvest its largest grain crop in 20 years following a spring that saw rainfall increase by 55 percent more than the average, according to Bloomberg News. The total grain crop may be as much as 23.9 MMT, which is 1.64 MMT more than an earlier forecast predicted, and a dramatic improvement over the 2012 total of 15.5 MMT. Barley production has the potential to total 9.83 MMT, up from the June forecast of 8.85 MMT, and last year’s total of 5.66 MMT. Corn is likely to increase to 4.33 MMT, which is up from the June forecast of 4.01 MMT, and last year’s total of 3.81 MMT.