Market Perspectives – July 19, 2018

Country News

Argentina: About 70 percent of the 2017/18 crop has been harvested and the Argentine Rural Society says that yields for late planted corn are below expectations due to impacts from the drought. USDA is still predicting a 33 MMT crop but the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects it will have to lower further its own estimate of 32 MMT. Any further reductions will make the volume of exports fall.  (Reuters)

Brazil: There are now 49 ships lined up to be loaded with corn amidst great uncertainty. The Congress has approved legislation codifying the government’s agreed higher minimum freight rates, but farmers are reluctant to pay the higher price. They are getting squeezed between lower world market prices and higher freight costs. Corn prices have fallen over 20 percent from $196.99/MT to $157.49/MT.

Nonetheless, many will be forced to pay since they’ve already sold the crop and have little storage capacity. AgRural has raised its estimate of the safrinha corn crop by 6.5 percent to 57.1 MMT due to a better crop in Mato Grosso and Goiás. The one plus for farmers is that low temperatures are preventing the corn from drying down to harvest moisture levels, so it must stay in the field for a while longer. (AgriCensus)

China: The corn auction sold 1.2 MMT. With 23.5 percent of the corn offered sold, the average price was CNY1,417/MT ($209.15/MT). Meanwhile, the volume of new crop production may fall due to adverse weather. (AgriCensus)

Germany: Barley crop problems will cause yields to fall by 18 percent. (AgriCensus)

Jordan: The state grain buying agency has issued a tender to purchase 120 KMT of feed barley with the origin optional. (Reuters)

South Korea: NOFI and KFA tender for December corn, and KOCOPIA purchased corn from the PNW. (AgriCensus)

Taiwan: MFIG bought 65 KMT of corn from the optional origins of U.S./Brazil. (Reuters)

Ukraine: A smaller corn crop is expected due to dryness in the eastern oblasts, and barley production will be down 17.8 percent. Barley prices have moved higher by five percent. Meanwhile, there are problems in the rail freight system. (Reuters; AgriCensus)