Market Perspectives – July 13, 2023

Country News

Brazil: Consultancy AgRural estimates the safrinha crop harvest at 27 percent complete, behind last year’s 41 percent progress rate. The firm increased its production estimate for the safrinha crop by 5 MMT to 102.9 MMT. Meanwhile, CONAB raised its forecast of Brazil’s total 2022/23 corn crop to 127.8 MMT. (AgRural, AgriCensus)

Canada: Drought in the prairies is casting doubts on the country’s barley harvest and pushing new crop prices higher. Barley prices are up $6/MT from last week at $425/MT and hold a wide $32/MT premium to corn. (DTN)

China: The USDA FAS estimates that China’s 2023/24 corn crop will increase from the prior year due to favorable weather and increased yields. Production is forecast at 280 MMT, up 2.8 MMT from last year. (USDA FAS)

China has delayed a decision on suspending tariffs on Australian barley that was originally set to be decided within three months from when Australia agreed to end its WTO challenge. The news deadline for the process is 11 August. (Reuters)

South Korea: The country’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought 68 KMT of South American corn at $253/MT CNF for November arrival in its latest international tender that was for up to 140 KMT. (StoneX)

Ukraine: The country’s Agricultural Ministry says 2023/24 grain exports total 497 KMT through 7 July and include 273 KMT of corn and 46 KMT of barley. The ministry did not give year-over-year comparisons for its most recent export data. (Refinitiv)