Market Perspectives – July 11, 2019

Country News

Australia: The barley crop will jump to 9.2 MMT on larger planted area. (USDA/FAS)

Argentina: High moisture has caused delays in harvesting and Vietnam is worried about procuring supplies for August/September. However, the corn harvest is now 61 percent complete and FOB upriver corn sellers have cut basis to increase demand. The total corn crop output is expected to be a record 49 MMT; USDA predicts 50 MMT. (AgriCensus; Buenos Aires Grain Exchange; USDA/FAS)

Brazil: Agrural reports the second-crop corn harvest is 44 percent complete. There is not expected to be any damage from a recent frost. However, corn exports will have competition from domestic ethanol production. (AgriCensus; USDA/FAS; FarmLead)

Canada: The new crop of feed barley is developing just fine but old crop prices are benefiting from very strong domestic and export demand. Still there is fear about Chinese restrictions on imports of Canadian meat. (FarmLead)

China: Starting out in Yunnan province in January of this year, the fall army worm has now spread to 20 provinces. Meanwhile, smaller area and lower yields will mean that 2019/20 corn production is 10 percent smaller than last year, totaling 230 MMT. However, feed use is expected to drop 11 percent, more than offsetting the fall in production. (Reuters; USDA/FAS)

EU: The heatwave, including a record high of 45.9C (114.5F), had little impact on crops in June but is now causing a decline in the condition of French grain crops. Spanish crops are wilting under the heat and may spur imports. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

India: The government lowered the duty to 15 percent on another 400 KMT of maize, bringing to 500 KMT the amount that could be imported under a new reclassification scheme. MMTC has tendered for two consignments of corn at around 25 KMT apiece. Bids are due by 11 July and must stay open until 18 July. (Reuters)

Ukraine: Rains have boosted hopes for a 35 MMT corn crop this year. (AgriCensus)