Market Perspectives – July 11, 2014

Ocean Freight Comments

Transportation and Export Report: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting:News reports this week are stating that world ocean freight prices are “gaining support” and showing some improvement. Although somewhat true, I think it is all a matter of relationship and perspective. Afterall, to some, a sick person who is not getting worse can be viewed as improving. Rates have, for the moment, stopped going down and that may seem like the definition of “support” to some. In reality we have witnessed only a little improvement in some sectors and some declines in others. Panamax rates are doing slightly better than the Capes, but hope springs eternal if you are a vessel owner. All-in-all I’d have to say that the patient is still on life support and full recovery remains a long ways off. It should be carefully noted that the below rate indications are for the 30-45 day market; spot prices can be lower and vessel offers out into September and forward positions will definitely be higher.

Below is a recent history of freight values for Capesize vessels of iron ore from Western Australia to China:

The charts below represent January-December 2013 annual totals versus January-May 2014 container shipments for Malaysia.