Market Perspectives – July 1, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that 45.6 percent of the corn crop is harvested with 39 percent rated good/excellent. Corn sales are up, and the country exported 3.5 MMT of barley in 2021/22. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: AgroConsult reduced its Safrinha crop forecast by 1 MMT to 65.2 MMT and forecast exports at 24.2 MMT. While USDA predicts the overall crop at 98.5 MMT, the FAS attaché says it will be 94 MMT and the lowest volume since 2017/18. This past week’s freeze likely damaged some of the later planted crop and sent prices soaring. The Instituto Mato-grossense de Economia Agropecuária says the corn harvest delay has widened but corn prices have softened, which should improve competitiveness. Meanwhile, Brazil’s so-called third corn crop or Sealba crop (April-September) grown in the northeastern states has been planted on 6.5 percent more hectares than a year ago and could total 1.7 MMT. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Canada: Farmers seeded fewer corn acres this year than expected. Stats Canada reported 3.47 million acres planted to corn, versus April intentions at 3.62 million, and down 2.3 percent from a year ago. (Reuters)

China: There will be a government auction of 155 KMT of corn sourced from the U.S. and Ukraine. The nation imported a record 3.75 MMT of corn in June alone. With three months left to go in the marketing year, China has imported 24.65 MMT of corn, a 19 MMT increase year on year. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Paraguay: Frost could damage up to 30 percent of the 4.3-MMT corn crop. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee says that maize production at 16.2 MMT is up 6 percent year on year. (AgriCensus)

Taiwan: MFIG purchased 55 KMT of South African corn for September/October delivery. (AgriCensus)

Tunisia: The government buying agency ODC bought barley at $271/MT for July/August delivery. (AgriCensus)

Turkey: The government grain purchasing agency TMO bought 320 KMT of feed barley at an average price of $270.69/MT. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: APK-Inform says that new crop corn prices have dipped $12 to $272-280/MT FOB and are now below feed wheat values. Barley prices rose $3 to $236-241/MT FOB Black Sea. Good weather could enable production of 37.1 MMT of corn and 8.3 MMT of barley. (Reuters; AgriCensus)