Market Perspectives – January 9, 2020

Country News

Argentina: Earlier concerns about moisture have abated as the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says recent rains have enabled corn plantings. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Brazil: UNICA says that 26.6 million liters of anhydrous ethanol and 44.98 million liters of hydrous ethanol were made from corn in the first half of December. Nearly 1 billion liters of ethanol has been produced from corn since April 1, 2019. There continue to be concerns about the moisture starved corn crop in Rio Grande do Sul, which some estimate at a 20 percent reduction.  The state is not the largest corn producer, but its livestock production is dependent on the crop. Cepea University calculates the corn price at $200.75/MT, the highest level since May 2016.

Despite the higher price, Brazil’s corn exports in December were double year ago levels. Meanwhile, rain occurrences in needed areas have increased and AgroConsult increased its predicted corn production area but reduced output by 1.3 percent to 101.6 MMT. Conab only predicts a 98.7 MMT corn crop, the lowest of many other estimates. (Ethanol Producer; AgriCensus; Reuters)

China: Due to reduced corn production and inadequate distillation capacity, the government has eliminated the 10 percent ethanol fuel blend requirement. (Refinitiv)

Egypt: The stock exchange is joint venturing with the Supply Ministry to create a commodities exchange that will include corn and allow spot buying and selling of both domestic and imported grain. (Reuters)

India: The government’s Metals and Minerals Trading Corporation (MMTC) has increased the amount of corn it will eventually tender for to 175 KMT but it has delayed the import plan. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: The nation’s largest feed maker, Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has tendered for 69 KMT of corn from optional origins, according to European traders. Kocopia bought March corn for $218.28/MT. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Weekly corn exports were 597 KMT, a slower pace, but total grain exports are up 34 percent in 2019/20. The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture says barley exports were 3.7 MMT and corn exports were 12 MMT. (AgriCensus)

Zimbabwe: Half the population of 8 million is starving and the government plans more corn imports in addition to providing subsidies for food staples. (Bloomberg)