Market Perspectives – January 6, 2022

Country News

Argentina: Analysts have begun marking down their estimates for this year’s corn crop due to drought conditions. Esteban Copati of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says there is the risk of lowering the corn estimate. AgResource Brazil lowered its estimate of the corn crop from 54 MMT to 47 MMT. The Argentine peso once held parity with the dollar but is now worth less than one U.S. cent, a benefit to exports. (Reuters; EFE; Refinitiv)

Brazil: Conab says over 90 percent of the corn has been planted and AgRural the corn outlook is dampened on drought loss. (Reuters)

China: Rumors continue to indicate China is in the market as corn imports in November were down a third from a year earlier. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

EU: Barley exports for 2021/22 have reached 4.52 MMT, versus 3.86 MMT a year ago, and maize imports are at 7.33 MMT, down from 8.66 MMT last year. (Reuters)

South Korea: Due to the increased use of private sales, tender-based corn buying has fallen 43 percent to 6 MMT. (AgriCensus)

Tunisia: Government agency ODC has made its first tender in the new year for barley and paid less. (AgriCensus)

Turkey: The government has extended the zero-based import tax on grain until 2023. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Corn prices are higher due to several factors including Chinese demand, a smaller South American crop, and rising input costs. Thus far, 2021/22 exports include 5.2 MMT of barley and 10.3 MMT of corn. Total corn exports are forecast at 30.9 MMT, up 33 percent from year ago, and the barley total at 5.2 MMT, a 23 percent increase. (Reuters; SPGlobal)