Market Perspectives January 19, 2017

Country News

Argentina: Chicago corn futures added a weather premium as concurrent extreme wet and dry conditions in Argentina likely lower corn production by 2.5-6.8 percent below USDA’s last estimate of 36.5 MMT. (Reuters; Bloomberg) 

China: Using a slightly increased harvested area and yield, the January estimate for 2016/17 corn production was increased by 680 KMT above the December estimate and carryover stocks was raised by 5.1 MMT. (China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates-CASDE) report. Meanwhile, the National Grain and Oils Information Center forecasts China’s corn imports in 2016/17 at 2 MMT, versus the 1 MMT predicted in the CASDE report. 

Separately, China will increase the import tariff on ethanol, which would make imports uneconomic. (Platts) 

Mexico: Juan Pablo Rojas of CNPAMM says that Mexico will import one-fifth more yellow corn next season because of higher fuel costs and a weaker peso hitting domestic crop production. This means imports will rise from 14-16 MMT to 16.8-19.2 MMT. He also said that Mexican farmers would welcome an end to NAFTA. (Reuters) 

Philippines: The Philippine Maize Federation Inc. (PhilMaize) has asked the government for assistance including authority to export corn. Purchases by the National Food Authority have been minimal and low prices have likely caused a drop in production by 5-10 percent, and there could be further reductions. PhilMaize also wants a commodity exchange warehouse system to help manage supply and demand. (Business Mirror) 

South Africa: A survey by Bloomberg indicates farmers will increase the area planted to maize by 31 percent in the 2017 season. Production was reduced by 27 percent last year due to drought. (Bloomberg) 

Vietnam: The Vietnam Animal Feed Association has imported 4 MMT of corn so far this year, 80 percent of it GMO. Vietnam only produces half the 8-10 MMT of animal feed needed each year and allowing the production of higher yielding, pest resistant GMO varieties could help self-sufficiency, though it may also harm meat exports to some countries. (VnExpress)