Country News
Brazil: Conab increased its forecast for corn production by 0.3 percent but others are saying that heat and dryness in South and Southeast Brazil could cause production to fall. There were marginal improvements to moisture last week, but rains are behind and raise the specter of lower production. (AgriCensus; AgWeb)
China: China’s latest Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report pegs 2018/19 corn production at 257.33 MMT, a 20 percent increase over the 215.04 MMT predicted last month. The latest estimate was informed by the most recent agricultural census. Tight supplies and strong demand are encouraging corn plantings. The Chinese Agriculture Outlook Committee says that demand is growing at 5.5 percent while domestic supplies are failing to keep up. Tang Ke, a spokesman for the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that the government will likely sell off the last of its ageing corn stocks this year.
Meanwhile, the confirmation of about 100 different outbreaks of African Swine Fever across 23 provinces has raised questions about impact on feed demand. Industrial demand from plants in the northeast will increase by 12.7 percent but nearly one million pigs have been culled. Some are fearing that the Chinese pig population could fall by 30 percent and farmers are being encouraged to replenish their herds. (Inside Agriculture; Reuters; Xinhua)
EU: Demand for feed caused the import TRQ for corn from Ukraine to be filled in just one week. (AgriCensus)
South Africa: The first maize imports for 2018/19 will be a Brazilian-sourced cargo of yellow corn arriving around 24 January at Cape Town. Strong exports of last year’s crop followed by a lack of rain for the new crop is prompting importers to stock up through June, with Argentina likely the next supplier. The El Nino-sparked drought is mostly impacting white corn areas and yellow corn supplies are running low. The Agricultural Business Chamber says the area planted to maize will fall about 19 percent to 1.98 MHa, which is consistent with the 2015/16 drought experience. NOFI purchased cheap feed wheat as Argentina offered firmer prices. (AgriCensus; Bloomberg)
South Korea: MFG procured 133 KMT of feed corn at $193/MT via two tenders. It is slated for April delivery most likely from the U.S. PNW. Meanwhile, MFG also bought a cargo of corn for May delivery at $209.99/MT. (AgriCensus)
Turkey: TMO tendered for 342 KMT of corn, plus issued fresh import quotas for barley. (AgriCensus)
Ukraine: Corn prices have been seasonal as traders say that demand has been unsteady. (AgriCensus)