Market Perspectives January 12, 2017

Country News

Argentina: Corn growing areas received some respite this week from excessive rain but weather models indicate that it remains a wet pattern with more rain returning this weekend. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture raised its estimate for 2015-16 corn production by almost 2 MMT to a total of 38.9 MMT, and pegged the 2016-17 crop at 44.51 MMT. These numbers are well above USDA figures (36.5 MMT) because Argentina uniquely includes silage (8 MMT) and corn consumed on the farm. (Reuters) 

Brazil: The government’s Conab raised its estimate for 2016-17 corn output by 0.8 percent to 84.5 MMT, up 17.5 MMT (+26 percent) from last year. By contrast, the private analysts at Agroconsult say the corn crop will be 94.9 MMT. (Reuters) 

China: Wetter and warmer than normal weather may subject corn, wheat and rice crops to wider outbreaks of pests and diseases, warns the agriculture ministry. The area adversely affected may be nearly 10 percent greater than last year and the ministry calls for more efforts to stop outbreaks. (Bloomberg) 

Mexico: The government of Enrique Peña Nieto will be under pressure as the price of corn tortillas begins to rise due to the falling value of the peso. (Financial Times) 

Russia: Per UkrAgroConsult, Russia exported a record volume (860,000 MT) of corn in November, 83 percent more than in November 2015. The EU and Iran are top importers of Russian corn, with Japan and other parts of Asia rising as import markets. (World Grain) 

South Africa:  Very cool and wet weather will dominate the maize regions through the next 10 days. (Reuters) 

South Korea: A tender by the Major Feedmill Group (MFG) for up to 70,000 MT of corn for arrival by May 5 resulted in no purchases. MFG stated that prices were too high with the lowest offer being $189.95/MT C&F offered by Cargill. (Reuters)