Country News
Argentina: The Bolsa de Cereales says that the corn condition is at 94 percent or above despite rains. More heavy rain is expected in the north, but they have been closer to normal in the core production area. (AgriCensus)
Brazil: The consultancy AgRural trimmed its corn estimate due to hot droughty weather but Conab held its corn forecast steady at 91.1 MMT. AgroConsult pegs total production at 95.6 MMT, just 500 KMT below last year. Nonetheless, further downside is likely. (AgriCensus)
China: Despite a two-year-old crackdown on the planting of GM corn in the northwest province of Shaanxi, the banned crop continues to spread. A shipment of GM corn seed was found in October 2017, and more was found in 2018. Greenpeace reported in 2016 that 93 percent of the corn in Liaoning province was GM. Meanwhile, Rabobank contends that corn consumption in China will slow due to high prices and increased imports. Demand may exceed domestic production for several years. China has several options for increasing domestic supplies including more production and reducing barriers to imports.
Separately, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the issuance of corn options contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. And the government approved the import use of corn that has the GMO trait DP4114. (Caixin Global; AgriCensus; China.org.cn; Reuters)
EU: December helped Europe reinforce its position as a new major grain importer. Total cereal imports hit 14.9 MMT. Corn imports accelerated despite higher prices with imports at 11.7 MMT, versus 7.9 MMT at this time last year. Corn prices in Bordeaux are up 16.3 percent and are up 10.7 percent in Rhin. (Inside Agriculture; France AgriMer)
Indonesia: The government has approved Bulog importing an additional 30 KMT of corn until March. (Reuters)
South Korea: Feed buyers are stalling waiting for lower corn prices. (AgriCensus)
Ukraine: Corn exports were up 112 percent in September-November compared with a year earlier. By contrast, exports of barley have struggled. UkrAgroConsult says that it was the largest amount of corn exports for those months since 2013-2014. Exports were significantly higher to the EU, Libya and Turkey. China also imported more maize from Ukraine. However, it is the first quarter of 2019 that will determine Ukraine’s success and offloading its recent bumper crop of corn. During this period South American suppliers are out of the market and the U.S. is the only competitor. Inventories will build if the country does not execute well on price and logistics. (UkrinForm; AgriCensus)