Market Perspectives – February 7, 2019

Ocean Freight Comments

Transportation and Export Report: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting: The Lunar New Year holiday week is here and though it is cause for celebration in many parts of the world, it is not so for vessel owners. The holiday slowdown in shipping markets is not a tonic for what ails this industry. Even after considering the New Year Holiday, tariff challenges and the Brazilian dam accident, there seems to be more troubling issues plaguing the dry-bulk industry.

The Panamax and Supramax segments having lost 60 percent and 49 percent, respectively, since early January – and the pain continues. Was the 2017 recovery story too optimistic? Has the shipping industry made the fundamental changes needed to truly balance vessel supply with cargo demand? Is there too much government support for some Asian shipbuilding industries and shipping entities that interferes with natural market economics and competition? Something needs to change, as we are returning to a picture of financial failure for numerous dry-bulk operators.