Market Perspectives – February 4, 2021

Country News

Argentina: With most of the corn crop planted, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 22 percent as good/excellent, down 6 percent week on week. Farmer sales are steady amid concerns of a government export tax hike. Recent rains have some calling renaming year’s La Nina to La Nada. Truckers are disrupting movement with roadblocks as they demand lower taxes, plus reduced fuel and toll prices along with fee schedules to be paid by farmers. They blocked roads around the ports of Bahia Blanca and Quequen while authorities cleared roads near Rosario which handles 80 percent of grain exports.  (Refinitiv; Reuters)

Brazil: The Instituto Matogrossense de Economia Agropecuária (IMEA) pegs the corn harvest at 5 percent and the safrinha corn crop 2 percent planted. The safrinha planting is up from 1 percent a week ago and still well behind the average. Domestic corn prices could hit R$100/60kg bag (US$307.38/MT). The FAS attaché lowered estimated total corn production to 105 MMT (USDA January WASDE 110 MMT) on reduced first crop yields and late safrinha planting but expects high prices to expand second crop planting area by 1 million hectares despite the risk of the growing cycle lapsing into the dry season. Meanwhile, turnout for a Brazilian truckers’ strike was underwhelming. (Reuters; AgriCensus; FAS GAIN)

China: Corn users are stockpiling supplies despite higher prices, triggering record imports and prices that are 50 percent higher than a year ago. China imported 6 MMT of corn this week, the largest amount ever for such a short period of time. One major corn supplier said that due to a growing hog herd and professionalization of the feed ration, expect to see multi-year increases in China’s imports. Corn imports in 2020 were 11.3 MMT, exceeding the WTO TRQ for the first time. There have also been large purchases of Canadian and French feed barley that has yet to be planted. China may use GMO corn to increase yields by 20 percent. (Refinitiv; AgriCensus)

Mexico: Agriculture Minister Victor Villalobos said that corn imports could drop 9 percent of 1.5 MMT a as result of the government discouraging use of genetically modified grain. The goal is to reduce imports gradually with the Corn for Mexico program intending to substitute 30 percent of imports with domestic production by 2024. The plan is intended to help 300,000 small-medium sized producers but critics say the government’s reduced support levels means increased dependence on imports and Mexico grows white corn (25 MMT) for human consumption versus importing yellow corn (13 MMT from the U.S.) for livestock production. (Refinitiv)

South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee says the maize planted area is 2.77 million hectares up 6.13 percent from last year. Cyclone Eloise is feared to have damaged the maize crop. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: Kocopia paid $300.83/MT for 60 KMT of U.S. corn, up $51/MT from previous purchases. MFG reportedly purchased 137 KMT of optional origin corn for March-April delivery (AgriCensus; DTN)

Turkey: The state grain buyer TMO tendered for 235 KMT of feed corn. (DTN)

Ukraine: Bad weather has stalled the country’s weekly corn export movements. (AgriCensus)

Vietnam: Traders are concerned that imports of corn from Myanmar are now threatened due to the military coup in that country. (AgriCensus)