Market Perspectives – February 28, 2019

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain exchange is expecting a 46 MMT corn crop but some analysts say it will be 48 MMT. Early harvesting has the export window opening in March instead of waiting for the usual April start. (S&P Global Platts)

Australia: Given the rumored Chinese 50 percent deposit requirement on Aussie barley, plus downward pressure from corn, the only bullish note for barley prices is if dryness Down Under extends into the growing season. (FarmLead)

India: Corn production is 21 percent lower due to a poor monsoon and attacks by the fall army worm. Meanwhile, demand is up due to rising poultry production. For the first time since 2016, the government may issue duty free import permits but estimates of the purchase level range from 300 KMT to 1 MMT. Ukraine is hoping to supply the demand since India only purchases non-GMO corn. (Reuters; S&P Global Platts)

Mexico: A smaller harvest area coupled with unseasonal and irregular rainfall will cause 2018/19 maize production to fall by 250 KMT to 25.75 MMT. (USDA/FAS/GAIN)

South Africa: Maize production will be down 15 percent from a year earlier and down 37 percent from 2016, making it a three-year low. The Crop Estimates Committee is expecting production at 10.51 MMT. Imports will reach 500 KMT but the South African Grain Information Service says that increased demand is absorbing the imported grain. (USDA/FAS/GAIN; Bloomberg)

South Korea: The Feed Leaders Committee and Nonghyup Feed, Inc. issued a tender for 138 KMT of corn with bids due on 27 February. (AgriCensus; Reuters)