Market Perspectives – February 13, 2020

Country News

Algeria: The government’s OAIC booked a purchase of 150 KMT of barley and ONAB is seeking corn for March with Ukraine the likely supplier. (AgriCensus)

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that corn planting is almost completed. Also, the first corn cargo of the season headed for Brazil has been booked but farmer selling at this point is down 39 percent from a year ago. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: With a reduced carryover and strong domestic demand, corn exports are likely to fall 20 percent this year to 34 MMT. The state of Bahia’s farmers’ association known as Aiba said that corn acreage would be 6.6 percent greater and output 25 percent higher, but their estimate is down 2.5 percent from last month.  Farmers are planting the safrinha corn crop as fast as possible and Mato Grosso, which produces 40 percent of the second crop corn is 39 percent planted. However, it will be an expensive crop to produce since the weak currency has made imported fertilizer a larger cost of production. (Argus Media; USDA; Soybean and Corn Advisor)

China: Feed production across China restarted this week after a two-week hiatus for the New Year and coronavirus concerns. (AgriCensus)

EU: France Agrimer raised its outlook for the 2020 barley crop. (Refinitiv)

Mexico: Purchases by Mexico pushed US corn sales for 2019/20 to 1.24 MMT. (AgriCensus)Saudi Arabia: A government policy change could cause the country to drop out of being the world’s largest barley buyer. (USDA)

South Korea: KFA purchased from Pan Ocean taking corn buying to 330 KMT and then MFG bought 130 KMT of optional origin corn. FLC bought 65 KMT in a private deal. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The corn export estimate is lower due to increased local feed demand. (USDA)

Vietnam: Logistics concerns in the face of coronavirus concerns is disrupting feed supplies and causing corn futures prices to rise but now avian flu is causing livestock prices to fall. (AgriCensus)

Zimbabwe: The Strategic Grain Reserve has fallen to just one month’s supply (110,000 MT) rather than the 500 KMT required and 40 percent of the population lacks access to enough food. The government is scrambling to boost corn imports with white corn from South Africa now at an 11-year high and an estimate 1 MMT needed. (Bloomberg)