U.S. Weather/Crop Progress
U.S. Drought Monitor Weather Forecast: During February 11-15, a half-inch or less of precipitation (liquid equivalent) is forecast for far northwestern California and the western margin of the drought region in Oregon. One to two inches of precipitation is anticipated across northern Idaho and northeastern Oregon. Unfortunately, much heavier amounts of precipitation (3-7 inches) are predicted for parts of the Pacific Northwest which are no longer in drought. Precipitation amounts of a half-inch or less are predicted for the Dakotas and most of the Mississippi Valley, with perhaps an inch for the Arkansas-Louisiana-Texas region, and for downwind areas of the Lower Great Lakes region.
During the ensuing 5 days (February 16-20), the projected precipitation pattern generally favors above-median precipitation from the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies eastward across North Dakota, and continuing eastward and southeastward across the Great Lakes region, the Ohio and upper Tennessee Valleys, Appalachians, and Atlantic Coast states from Maine to South Carolina. Below-median precipitation is favored from California and the Southwest eastward across central and southern sections of both the Rockies and Great Plains, most of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast states including all of Florida. This pattern is what would be expected of a La Nina winter, not an El Nino winter. At any rate, some drought relief is at least favored across the northern U.S. during this period, but this is not the case for places like (most of) California, the Southwest, and Texas. Dryness is rapidly expanding across Texas, and some degradation in the drought depiction will probably be needed next week.
Follow this link to view current U.S. and international weather patterns and the future outlook: Weather and Crop Bulletin.