Market Perspectives – December 5, 2024

U.S. Weather/Crop Progress

Crop Condition and Crop Progress Reports not applicable until Spring 2025.

Highlights:

    • In the West, mild, dry weather prevails, although air-stagnation issues and pockets of freezing fog continue to plague some locations in Oregon and portions of neighboring states. A weak cold front approaching the Pacific Coast is resulting in an increase in cloudiness. Warmth continues to favor late-season fieldwork, including Arizona’s cotton harvest, with Thursday’s high temperatures expected to reach 80°F in parts of the Desert Southwest.
    • On the Plains, frigid air is in place across parts of Montana and much of the Dakotas, with scattered sub-0°F readings noted Thursday morning. A mostly shallow snow cover exists across the northern tier of the Plains, with Glasgow, Montana, and Fargo, North Dakota, each reporting a current depth of 3 inches. Farther south, cool, dry weather prevails, except for some lingering warmth on the High Plains.
    • In the Corn Belt, snow squalls are again developing downwind of the Great Lakes, following the passage of a cold front. Very cold, blustery, but dry weather covers the remainder of the Corn Belt, with temperatures falling to 0°F or below early Thursday in parts of the upper Midwest. Given the absence of a significant snow cover, except in the snow-belt areas near the Great Lakes, most livestock are favorably adapting to the colder weather regime.
    • In the South, rain has shifted mostly offshore, except in the central Gulf Coast region. A surge of cold, dry air is overtaking the remainder of the South, with wind-chill temperatures later Thursday expected to fall below 20°F as far south as southeastern Louisiana, western Florida, and southern sections of Mississippi and Alabama.

Outlook:

Stormy weather in northern California and the Pacific Northwest will persist into the weekend, with a strong cold front currently sweeping across the southern and eastern U.S. that will be trailed by another round of cold, windy weather, with significant snow-squall activity expected downwind of the Great Lakes through Friday. Meanwhile, a cold front approaching the northern Pacific Coast will generate Northwestern rain and snow showers, starting on Saturday. As that front propagates eastward, a low-pressure system will form late in the weekend across the north-central U.S. Along the system’s trailing cold front, a rain event will unfold across the South, where 5-day totals could reach 2 to 4 inches from eastern Texas to the southern Appalachians. Most of the remainder of the country will remain dry, with Western warmth eventually spreading east of the Rockies. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for December 10 – 14 calls for the likelihood of near- or above- normal temperatures nationwide, except for cooler-than-normal conditions across the Deep South from southern New Mexico to the lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, near- or below-normal precipitation from central and southern California to the Plains and Mississippi Valley should contrast with wetter-than-normal weather in the East and Northwest.