Market Perspectives – December 17, 2020

Country News

Argentina: Due to drought conditions, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says that corn sowing has occurred on only 55.4 percent of the 6.3 million hectares expected this season. (Reuters)

Brazil: Less than one percent of Brazil’s corn exports last season went to China. This has compelled Brasilia to engage in talks with Beijing about an increase. The discussions have included technical issues such as preventing the spread of pests and diseases. However, producer group Abramilho says sales right now are infeasible due to inter-seasonal shortages.

Brazil’s national agricultural agency, Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) cut its estimate of 2020/21 corn output by 2.2 percent to 102.6 MMT. It also reports that corn ending stocks in 2020/21 will fall to 7.4 MMT, a 30 percent drop from a year earlier and the lowest since 2015/16. The Corn & Soybean Advisor reduced its estimate for corn production by 2 MMT to a total of 102 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Corn Ethanol Union (UNEM) predicts corn ethanol production will rise 64 percent in 2020/21.  (Reuters; Refinitiv; Bloomberg; AgriCensus)

China: It is unclear whether corn production will be boosted this coming year or not. Reports that the pig herd will recover 90 percent of its previous size suggests that more corn imports will be needed. (Refinitiv)

EU: Lower pork production and consumption will reduce EU feed demand by 2030. (AgriCensus)

Jordan: A tender to purchase 120 KMT of feed barley was issued by the state buying agency. The deadline for bids is 22 December. (Refinitiv)

South Africa: Corn exports will hit a record 2.8 MMT. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: Kocopia purchased 60 KMT of corn from Posco. (AgriCensis)

Turkey: Drought conditions and rising consumer prices compelled the government to waive the 20 percent import duty on grains like corn and barley until 30 April 2021. (World Grain)

Ukraine: The analysis form APK-Inform says corn export prices declined another $4 to $226-$230/MT. The economy ministry says this year’s corn harvest has netted 29.8 MMT from 98 percent of the sown area. Corn exports thus far amount to 7.2 MMT and barley overseas sales are at 3.7 MMT. (Reuters)