Market Perspectives December 15, 2016

Country News

Argentina: Corn prices have rallied based on limited rainfall in key growing areas. However, there is still time for precipitation to improve things. (Reuters) 

Brazil: USDA raised the projected upcoming corn crop by 3 MMT to 86.5 MMT, a 29 percent increase over last year’s drought stricken crop. A higher final yield could take the total crop size even larger. (USDA) 

China: At least four cargoes of corn were bought from Ukraine ahead of 2017 import quotas being issued. A small volume of U.S. corn has already been booked for 2017 but most imports have been from Ukraine. 

The province of Heilongjiang sold 48 KMT of corn this week, or 20 percent of this year’s harvest. 

China Railway Corp is increasing the volume of corn it is moving in northeastern regions to stabilize prices and targets moving a total of 11 MMT before the late January Lunar New Year. Truck rules have also been relaxed. 

A spokesman for state-owned Chinatex Corp. says that China is unlikely to significantly increase corn exports even when prices fall to their lowest (1,300 yuan/MT; $187/MT) in March/April. Small amounts have been exported, mostly to North Korea. China’s domestic corn demand will increase by 25 MMT in 2016/17 to 231 MMT; government stocks are between 250-260 MMT. (Bloomberg) 

France: The French farm ministry says that this year’s maize harvest will be 11.8 MMT and not the 12.3 MMT projected last month. It predicts that next year’s winter barley area will be down 4.1 percent to 1.38 million hectares. By contrast, the consultancy Strategie Grains predicts that maize and barley production will increase slightly in 2017. (Reuters) 

South Africa: The government announced that genetically modified white and yellow corn would now be allowed to be imported. The country has already about 65 percent of its drought induced import needs, meaning an opportunity for the balance to be from GMO crops. (Bloomberg)