Market Perspectives – December 13, 2018

Country News

Algeria: The government’s grain purchasing agency bought 40 KMT of Argentine corn from Glencore. The original tender was for 80 KMT and the sales price was $204.37/MT, which implies an FOB upriver value of 50 cents over the March contract. (AgriCensus)

Argentina: The government was given the green light to a 17 percent increase in the grain freight price. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: The courts temporarily suspended fines on companies that do not pay the higher government set freight rates, but this has sparked nonobstructive protests from independent truckers. (AgriCensus)

China: Dou Kejun of the China National Renewable Energy Centre says that ethanol production is set to increase in order to meet the growing demand for cleaner fuels. Production in 2017 was 2.8 MMT and capacity is currently around 3.38 MMT. China is unlikely to meet its mandate for nationwide blending by 2020 without importing significant volumes of ethanol. Ethanol makers are suggesting the need for more corn imports. Separately, China may need to look elsewhere to meet its oat demand since Canadian production was down 8 percent this year. (AgriCensus)

Indonesia: The chairman of the Indonesian Feedmills Association says that corn demand in 2019 will rise 58 percent to 9.5 MMT if corn prices are normal ($255-262/MT) but will only rise 16 percent to 7 MMT if prices are considered high. (Reuters)

Mexico: The fourth largest private corn sale ever was executed, with 1.6 MMT changing hands. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: Drought is hurting corn planting and it looks to be sticking around due to El Nino conditions. This has caused corn prices to spike with the March contract hitting $193.29/MT and the December contract hitting $194.19/MT. Argentine corn ($171.75/MT) plus freight ($30/MT) is now competitive and traders are now considering booking yellow corn imports for March delivery. Add the depreciation of the rand and farmers may try to plant more white corn if moisture arrives. (AgriCensus)