Market Perspectives – August 6, 2020

Country News

Brazil: Mato Grosso’s domestic corn demand will grow more than 20 percent this year. July corn exports were 4.15 MMT, versus 5.9 MMT a year ago. Arc Mercosur estimates the safrinha corn harvest at 64.6 percent complete versus 67.3 percent a year ago. The harvest has slowed due to rains over the last week in southern areas. AgroConsult forecasts 2020/21 corn output at 110.3 MMT, versus 101.2 MMT last year. The tariff-free ethanol import quota expires at the end of August and debate is heating up over whether to extend it. The current quota is 750 million liters/year and imports will be needed regardless. (AgriCensus; Argus Media)

China: While U.S. corn futures prices have fallen 12 percent this year, Dalian corn futures are up 20 percent. Food price inflation is now in the double-digits and there is pressure for more imports. Despite more requirements imposed on auction bidding, it was fully subscribed. Some say a government ban on photographs at granaries is to conceal the existence of a larger supply shortage than is generally known. (JCI)

EU: The corn production forecast was raised but with harvesting half completed, barley output in the UK is expected to fall by 18 percent. (AgriCensus)

India: The 2020/21 marketing year corn crop has benefited from the monsoon with an estimated 7.13 million hectares planted. The country is likely to reduce its corn imports to 300 KMT due to lower demand from the poultry sector and weaker domestic corn prices. (FAS GAIN)

Malawi: The government will now cover all farmers with its Affordable Inputs Program that charges less than 25 percent the market cost of fertilizer. Corn production is expected to nearly double as a result and could enable exports. (NextAfrica)

Mexico: Grupo Consultor De Mercados Agrícolas says that first half 2020 corn production is 6.6 percent larger than last year. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: Two major feed makers took advantage of lower CBOT prices and tendered for 400 KMT of corn, but the total purchase volume was less. (AgriCensus)

Thailand: The Thailand Feed Mill Association is seeking 107 KMT of barley but complained that prices are ‘too high.’ (AgriCensus)

Tunisia: Recent purchasing included 75 KMT of barley. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The Ukrainian Grain Association says the corn harvest will reach an all-time high of 38.86 MMT on better weather. Trade group UGA says corn output will be 38.9 MMT, a 2.1 MMT increase from an earlier estimate, and exports will be 33 MMT in 2020/21, up 2.7 MMT from a year ago. However, APK-Inform says that the lack of rain in central and southern regions is unfavorable for winter barley sowing. The current barley harvesting includes 6.9 MMT. (AgriCensus; Refinitiv; Argus Media)