Market Perspectives – August 5, 2021

U.S. Weather/Crop Progress

U.S. Drought Monitor Weather Forecast: During the next 5 days (August 3 – 9, 2021) the heavy monsoonal rains that have soaked a large part of the southern Rockies and interior West should ease up, with significant totals exceeding 0.5 inch restricted to some higher elevations. Farther north, moderate to heavy rains are expected in the upper Midwest and most of the Great Lakes region. Between 1.5 and 3.0 inches are expected at most locations from the northeastern quarter of Iowa through northern Illinois and much of Wisconsin. Meanwhile, light to moderate rains are forecast northwest Washington, part of east-central Idaho and southwestern Montana, the east-central Great Plains, most of southern Texas, the central Appalachians, portions of eastern Ohio, and northwestern Maine. Elsewhere, only isolated areas of light to moderate rain are anticipated, with little or none expected through much of the Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley states, and the lower elevations in the southwestern quarter of the contiguous 48 states. Above-normal temperatures will accompany dryness in most of the northern and western parts of the Nation, particularly at nighttime. Daily minima should average 6 to locally 9 degrees F in parts of the southern Rockies and Intermountain West, with near normal temperatures restricted to much of California and the relatively drought-free Southeast. Daytime high temperatures will be near to somewhat above normal through most areas of dryness and drought, with the largest anomalies (+6 to +10 degrees F) exacerbating the dryness in the central Plains

The CPC 6-10 day extended range outlook (for August 10 – 14, 2021) favors subnormal precipitation through a large part of the country, but not with high confidence. But everywhere from the Southeast coastal plain and Florida northward and westward through the Gulf Coast region, the central and western Mississippi Valley, The Plains, all but the southernmost Rockies, California from the Cascades and Sierra Nevada eastward, and the Pacific Northwest. Monsoonal moisture may increase again in southern areas, with above-normal precipitation slightly favored in the southern half of Arizona and part of New Mexico. Odds also favor above-normal precipitation in the Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and the dry areas in Alaska. Subnormal temperatures are expected to accompany the increased precipitation in Alaska, but a vast majority of the contiguous states should average warmer than normal. Odds exceed 60 percent (compared to climatological odds of 34 percent) from the central and northern Plains eastward, topping 80 percent from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Only parts of southern Texas and southern Arizona do not have enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures.

Follow this link to view current U.S. and international weather patterns and future outlook: Weather and Crop Bulletin.