Market Perspectives – August 22, 2014

Ocean Freight Comments

Transportation and Export Report: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting:A firm-to-better tone stayed with world ocean freight markets most of the week and most rates moved slightly higher.

By Thursday the market strength seemed to be abating and things were topping out, at least for the moment. We are entering Q4 of the calendar year and vessel operators are still looking for signs of a true turnaround and recovery. It looks like they will have to wait just a bit longer.

We are only about one month from the true North American fall crop export season and the prospects for big crops and heavy export movements remain good. North American domestic rail logistics, although still problematic, appear to be improving and bids in the secondary rail car market are coming down.

Harvest logistics will be as important as harvest prices for end users of grains and oil seeds.

Below is a recent history of freight values for Capesize vessels of iron ore from Western Australia to China:

The charts below represent January-December 2013 annual totals versus January-August 2014 container shipments for Hong Kong.