Market Perspectives August 16, 2013

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange announced that the world’s third largest corn exporter is set to plant 3.56 million hectares of corn in the 2013/14 crop year, which is down from the 3.68 million hectares sown in 2012/13, reports Reuters. The 2012/13 corn crop harvest has nearly finished and the government anticipated the total amount of grains to be around 32.1 MMT.

China: An official Chinese think tank announced that the country will import 5.5 MMT of corn in 2013/14, which is a 2.8 MMT increase over the 2012/13 year, according to Reuters. China has so far purchased 4 MMT of U.S. sourced corn for 2013/14, and U.S. corn currently commands prices that are about $98/MT less than its Chinese counterpart.

India: Indian corn exports could fall by as much as 40 percent in the coming marketing year as foreign buyers are increasingly turning to cheaper and higher quality South American sourced grain following severe rain damage to India’s crop, according to Reuters. Heavy rains afflicted the corn harvest across the country’s eastern corn belt in May, which encouraged buyers to seek grain elsewhere. This setback comes at a particularly bad time for India. Global corn supplies are set to rebound in 2013/14, and grain importers are spoiled for choice with cheaper grain. Total corn exports could drop as low as 3 MMT in 2013/14, which is down from the 4.8 MMT exported in 2012/13.

South Africa: Yellow corn futures have risen for two days on the heels of increasing U.S. prices, reports Bloomberg News. Yellow corn for September delivery gained by 0.4 percent to $218.03/MT, while white corn for December delivery rose by 0.5 percent to $233/MT.

Ukraine: The Ministry of Agriculture has increased its August grain export forecast to now total more than 2 MMT, according to Reuters. The increase comes as a reaction to higher-than-expected demand for Ukrainian grain. Previously, Ukraine expected to export 1.5-1.7 MMT of grain, and it has already exported some 1.1 MMT so far in August. Ukraine has exported 2.3 MMT of grain since the current season began on July 1, and this total includes some 953,000 MT of barley and 468,000 MT of corn. The Agricultural Ministry predicts that this year’s grain harvest could reach a record high of 57.1 MMT, which is a significant improvement over 2012’s 46.2 MMT.

United Kingdom: The planting of spring barley in England totaled some 564,000 hectares, which is nearly twice as much as plantings last year, according to Bloomberg News. Winter barley planting on the other hand fell by 22 percent to 257,000 hectares. The winter barley harvest is about 75 percent complete and the yields so far are higher than the five-year average. Total 2013 barley planting stands at 821,000 hectares, which is a 32 percent improvement over 2012