Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook
USDA released their first survey-based estimates of the U.S. corn and soybean crops on Monday, August 12th. The corn yield estimate is 183.1 bushels per acre, which would be 5.8 bushels per acre higher than last year and a record national yield. Within the Midwest, Illinois is expected to have a corn yield of 225 bushels per acre, Iowa at 209 bu/ac, Indiana at 207 bu/ac, all record yields. USDA also adjusted their estimates of planted and harvested acres dropping planted corn acres to 90.7 billion and harvested acres to 82.7 million acres. Corn production is currently estimated to be 15.146 billion bushels which is 195 million bushels less than last year’s crop.
In the USDA WASDE report, planted corn acres dropped 0.8 million acres from the prior report, and down 3.9 million acres from last year. Harvested corn acres dropped 0.7 million acres from the prior report, and down 3.8 million acres from last year. Compared to the prior report, beginning stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year were reduced by 10 million bushels, production increased by 47 million bushels with total supply being increased by 36 million bushels. On the demand side, feed and residual was held steady at 5.825 billion bushels, food, seed and industrial use decreased by 15 million bushels to 6.84 billion bushels with usage for ethanol held steady at 5.45 billion bushels. Export demand was raised by 75 million bushels to 2.3 billion bushels for a total use of 14.965 billion bushels. With the increases in demand, ending stocks were reduced by 24 million bushels compared to the prior report, to 2.073 billion bushels. However, this is a 206 million bushel increase in ending stocks compared to the 2023/24 marketing year. USDA lowered the estimated average farm price of corn for the 2024/25 year to $4.20 per bushel, 10 cents per bushel lower than the prior estimate and 45 cents per bushel lower than the average farm price for 2023/24. While the initial reaction to the corn reports was a drop of 2 to 4 cents per bushel, within minutes after the report, corn prices were 4 to 6 cents higher.
The estimated sorghum yield is 52.9 bu/ac up 0.9 bu/ac from 2023 with harvested acreage estimated to be down 840,000 acres. Production for the 2024/25 marketing year is estimated to be 278.8 million bushels, down 38.9 million bushels from last year. Sorghum exports are estimated at 195 million bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year, down 50 million bushels from the prior report and down 40 million bushels from last year.
Barley acreage was lowered to 2.4 million planted acres and 1.9 million harvested acres. Yield is estimated to be 79.1 bu/ac, which is 4.9 bu/ac higher than the prior report and 6.7 bu/ac higher than last year. Total supply of 241 million bushels is down 23 million bushels from last year with exports estimated to be 3 million bushels and ending stocks of 73 million bushels.
Soybean planted acreage was increased to 87.1 million acres, up 1 million acres from the prior report and 3.5 million acres higher than last year. Harvested acres are estimated at 86.3 million acres, up 3.9 million acres from last year. Yield is estimated to be 53.2 bu/ac, up 1.2 bu/ac from the prior report and up 2.6 bu/ac from last year. Total supply is estimated at 4.949 billion bushels with crush estimated at 2.425 billion bushels, exports of 1.85 billion bushels, seed and residual of 114 million bushels and ending stocks for 2024/25 of 560 million bushels. This is an increase in ending stocks of 125 million bushels from the prior report and up 215 million bushels from last year. The average farm price estimate is $10.80 per bushel, down $0.30 per bushel from the prior report and down $1.70 per bushel from last year. Soybeans fell to new contract lows after the report. Soybean meal exports are estimated to be 17.5 million short tons at an annual average price of $320 per ton.