Market Perspectives – August 15, 2019

Country News

Argentina: The falling value of the peso has doubled the pace of corn export sales. The shocking loss for President Macri in recent elections has raised fears of rising export taxes on agricultural commodities. The economy may force the decision to raise export taxes. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: Conab revised upward its estimate for the Brazilian corn crop but kept it under 100 MMT. Corn exports slowed in the first half of August.  (AgriCensus)

China: The Agriculture Ministry is lowering its forecasted consumption of the 2019/20 corn crop by 2 MMT as a result of ASF destruction of the swine herd. Meanwhile, smaller sized corn farmers are particularly challenged in battling the scourge of the fall army worm due to the cost of chemicals. The reduced consumption by hogs coincides with reduced corn production due to the fall army worm and farmers being encouraged to instead boost soybean plantings. The government’s corn auction was weak amid higher prices. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

EU: Spain is now the largest corn importer while French crop conditions falls again. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: Higher prices prompted KOCOPIA to make a private purchase of corn but then the lower prices following USDA’s WASDE report prompted public tendering for corn by NOFI, FLC and KFA. At least 130 KMT of corn was bought with reported suppliers being Ukraine and Argentina. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Much as USDA’s forecast has divided analysts over the U.S. corn crop, the agency’s forecast for Ukraine’s 2019/20 corn crop at 36.5 MMT has divided analysts. APK-Inform says that corn exports will be 27.5 MMT, 700 KMT increase over their earlier estimate. Nonetheless, the corn export pace is slowing and being replaced by barley exports. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Zambia: The UK is encouraging authorities to declare a food emergency in order to allow assistance after the worst drought in four decades. A nearly 1 MMT cereals deficit of mostly corn is forecast. (Bloomberg)