Market Perspectives – April 9, 2020

Country News

Algeria: The state agency ONAB tendered to purchase 40 KMT of corn from Argentina. The purchase was on 8 April with shipment expected FH May. (Reuters)

Argentina: Water levels on the Parana River are at decade-lows, reducing the draft of ships carrying corn to the export markets. Reduced loading means a Panamax ship carries 7,500 tons less grain and a Handymax ship would lose 5,400 tons of carriage. (Refinitiv)

Brazil: The farm lobby group CAN says that corn exports in Q1 were down 51 percent from a year earlier due to heightened domestic feed demand and reduced inventory. The meat lobby group ABPA says that chicken and pork processors are facing such high domestic corn prices that they will need to import maize in May. The cost of corn has reached $191.50/MT, the highest nominal value in history. Brazil imported 74 KMT of corn in March, up 38 percent year-on-year, and Q1 imports of 357 KMT was the largest since 2017. CONAB surprisingly raised its estimate for 2019/20 corn production to 101.9 MMT while others see dry weather reducing parts of the safrinha crop, especially that planted late. (Reuters; World Grain; S&P Global Platts)

Chile: Drought will reduce the 2020/21 maize crop by 3 percent to 837 KMT. Total consumption is 3.53 MMT and so imports will need to be 2.7 MMT. (USDA/FAS/GAIN)

China: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs raised its estimate for 2019/20 corn imports by 33 percent to 4 MMT. Based on a trade agreement and lower tariffs, China has booked 1 MMT of U.S. corn for delivery in the current marketing year and 2020/21, plus it is buying U.S. sorghum. Industrial use of corn is down 2.3 percent due to the coronavirus and slowing economy. China also bought six cargoes of feed barley from Australia at $220/MT. (Reuters)

Ethiopia: Corn production will be 13 percent larger this year, hitting 8.6 MMT as a result of better seeds, improved rainfall and increased feed demand. (USDA/FAS/GAIN)

Jordan: The state grain buying agency bought 60 KMT of optional origin feed barley. The price paid was $199/MT C&F with shipment FH September. (Reuters; Refinitiv)

Saudi Arabia: Originally seeking 720 KMT of feed barley, the country ended up purchasing 1.2 MMT. Price paid was $200/MT with delivery in May/June. (FarmOnline)

South Korea: European traders report that the Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased 58 KMT of optional origin corn on Tuesday. Meanwhile, South Korea’s largest feed maker, Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI), tendered for 138 KMT of corn for August delivery. KFA and MFG also bought corn privately. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Record levels of grain exports in 2019/20 included 24 MMT of corn and 4.4 MMT of barley. However, now corn export prices have fallen $2-$4/MT in the past few days due to the strengthening of the currency, the hryvnia, plus a drop in domestic demand. APK-Inform pegs the corn price at $160-$168/MT CPT Black Sea port. (Reuters; Refinitiv)