Market Perspectives – April 8, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The barley crop for 2020/21 will hit 4.4 MMT and analyst Michael Cordonnier pegs corn production at 46 MMT, with a bias at neutral to lower. Weather continues to be mostly favorable. (AgriCensus; Soybean & Corn Advisor)

Brazil: The Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento reports that for the first time ever, total Brazilian grain production will exceed 270 MMT, including a record 109 MMT of corn, and increase of 900 KMT from its March forecast. However, weather remains drier in the interior of southern Brazil with a chance of rain next week. AgroConsult lowered its estimate of Safrinha production by 4.5 MMT (3.6 percent) to 78.3 MMT. The consultancy says 38 percent of the Safrinha corn crop was planted “in a high-risk climate window.” High prices encouraged a 7.3 percent expansion in the planted area. Current high corn prices are rumored to prompt ethanol plants to washout their contracts and instead sell their corn supplies. The USDA attache sees corn production in 2020/21 at 105 MMT but rising to 114 MMT in 2021/22 (March 2022-February 2023). (Reuters; AgriCensus; Soybean & Corn Advisor)

Ukraine: 2021 corn sowing is slightly delayed due to a late spring. APK-Consult says that corn exports fell by 25 percent in the first half of the 2020/21 marketing year to 15.9 MMT with most sales to China followed by the EU. The Economy Ministry says corn exports will not exceed 24 MMT, or 80 percent of production in 2020. But APK-Inform says corn prices rose $5/MT this past week to $261-$270 FOB and exports will be 23.2 MMT, of which 68 percent has already shipped. (Reuters; Refinitiv)