Country News
Argentina: Corn basis prices fell last week due to an announced EU restriction on poultry imports from Brazil. Most of Brazil’s poultry production is located along the southern border with Argentina, with the latter supplying corn for feed. The ban will affect about a third of Brazil’s poultry exports. Argentine corn prices are more stable this week.
The Ministry of Agriculture says final corn production will be 42 MMT and corn exports will be down 650 KMT to 25 MMT. As if the drought and poultry bans were not bad enough, the bulk carrier Ocean Treasure damaged the grain port terminal in Santa Fe province and repairs will take a few months, which will crimp grain exports. (AgriCensus)
Brazil: Several areas were planted to second crop (safrinha) corn later than optimal and there is the risk of inadequate rainfall in south-central Brazil, plus freezing in Paraná and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. Worse, the dry season started earlier than normal, causing concern particularly in western Paraná. By contrast, corn in Mato Grosso and to the north are developing well. Actual yield estimates will be available in May. (AgRural; Reuters)
China: Last week’s auction cleared 80.6 percent of the volume offered for sale, which contrasts with the 88.5 percent cleared the week before. Another 7 MMT of corn is being offered this week in the four principle corn provinces in the north, and auctions are planned for May 3-4. The Starch Industry Association expects corn consumption to be up 15 MMT in 2018. Corn starch production increased 3.34 MMT in 2017 and production is likely to rise another 5 MMT in 2018. (AgriCensus)
Russia: Corn exports will be 5 percent higher this year and reach 4.35 MMT. By contrast, barley exports are slowing down as stocks dwindle and now total 4.69 MMT, or 93 percent year-on-year. (AgriCensus)
Ukraine: Farmers had been holding on to their corn awaiting better prices, but the demand is not developing and stocks are large. Consequently, domestic cash prices have fallen to $192-194/MT and this will cause FOB prices to soften to $205-206/MT. The government ended a VAT rebate on soybeans and this is expected to cause 2018/19 corn production to jump 19 percent and increase export volumes by over 21 percent. Corn exports in 2017/18 at 14 MMT were down 11 percent from last year and barley exports at 4 MMT were down 22 percent. Increased domestic feed demand contributed to the lower exports. (AgriCensus; USDA/FAS GAIN)