Market Perspectives – April 17, 2015

Country News

China: The government is considering a plan to double subsidies paid out to corn processors in China’s main northeastern corn-producing region in an effort to prop up the industry and increase consumption, according to Reuters. This $32/MT incentive would apply to processors that have an annual capacity of more than 100,000 MT. Industrial corn consumption fell by 5.2 percent in 2013/14 to 47.6 MMT, which is the largest drop in five years. Due to large stockpiles the government has begun selling corn a month earlier than it did last year. However, corn sales have been low so far with the government reporting that it only sold 2,808 MT of the 295,481 MT it had offered this week. The average price was $395.17/MT, while imported U.S. corn is being offered at $372.75-$382.43/MT.

South Africa: Africa’s largest corn producer is looking for new markets despite being forced by severe drought to begin importing corn, reports Bloomberg News. Farmers are looking to increase sales in the Middle East and Asia, with Saudi Arabia and Vietnam being identified as particularly good prospects. For the last seven years, South Africa has exported an average of 1.9 MMT of corn annually, and while this crop may be reduced by as much as 32 percent, the prior-year’s was the largest in over three decades.

Ukraine: Ukraine intends to ship 3.5 MMT of grain to China this year as part of the 2012 loan-for-grain agreement between the two countries, according to Reuters.

Further on Ukraine: Reuters reports that UkrAgroConsult may downgrade its estimate of the country’s barley harvest due to the possibility of a reduced planting area. For now, the forecast remains unchanged at 7 MMT.

Yemen: The outbreak of violence in Yemen has caused the country’s food security to rapidly worsen and prices to double as both the corn and sorghum planting season and food markets have been disrupted, reports Reuters. The FAO estimates that 11 million of the 26 million people in Yemen are severely food insecure, while 16 million people are classified as needing at least some form of humanitarian aid and lacking access to safe drinking water