Market Perspectives – October 29, 2020

Country News

Argentina: A report by the Rosario Board of Trade says that upcoming rains should boost corn productivity. Corn plantings as of last week were at 27.5 percent of the total projected area of 6.3 million hectares for the 2020-2021 marketing year (March-February). The production forecast is around 47 MMT, down from 51.5 MMT 2019-2020, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. USDA’s attaché calls it 48 MMT, versus the official 50 MMT corn production estimate. The La Nina threat still looms large with at least a 7-10 percent corn production drop expected. (SPGlobal/Platts)

Brazil: The Associação Nacional dos Exportadores de Cereais (ANEC) forecasts October 2020 corn exports at 4.95 MMT, versus 5.5 MMT a week ago.  Brazil’s corn prices have surpassed the 2007 record, reaching 81.48 reais/per sack ($241.50/MT), a 30 percent increase over last month according to the agricultural think tank Cepea. (Reuters; Refinitiv)

China: Cofco’s head of logistics, Wang Baichao, says corn imports could more than double to 17 MMT. He says 20 MMT of low-quality wheat is being used to fill higher feed demand. Imports of sorghum and barley are also expected to surge higher. Sky-high domestic corn prices, huge sales of state corn reserves, and record corn imports signal that China does not possess 63 percent of global corn stocks. Thus, discussions about adding millions of tons of tariff free corn imports to cover the shortfall. China could become the world’s top corn importer for the first time and drive up world prices. (Forbes; Bloomberg)

EU: Unfavorable weather conditions prompted a 5.2 percent cut in the average corn yield estimate from a month earlier and the estimate is now 7.42 MT/hectare. That is 2.1 percent below the 5-year average. Winter barley plantings are delayed by rains. (EU Joint Research Centre/MARS)

Jordan: For the first time since April, the state grain buyer has purchased 60 KMT of feed barley at $238.75/MT. (AgriCensus)

Mexico: Grupo Consultor De Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA) reported that Jan-Sep corn imports were up 3.6 percent, year-on-year. The country imported a total of 12.23 MMT of corn in the first nine months of 2020. (AgriCensus)

Philippines: The Department of Agriculture expects a harvest of 8 MMT of corn this year, compared with 7.7 MMT last year. The Department’s National Corn Program director, Lorenzo Caranguian, says corn ending stocks will cover eight months of domestic requirements. (Reuters)

South Africa: With its second-biggest corn crop on record last year at 15.4 MMT, favorable rains from La Nina this season could make an even bigger crop in 2020/21. Planting is underway and should be completed by mid-November. (Gro Intelligence)

South Korea: Feed importers return with strong corn demand as both NOFI and FLC closed tenders. (AgriCensus)

Taiwan: MFIG bought 65 KMT of corn at 247.38 over May for Jan-Feb shipment. (AgriCensus)

Turkey: Turkstat raised the barley production forecast by 100 KMT. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: With 56 percent of the area harvest, 14.5 MMT of corn has been collected. Estimates of the final crop total vary greatly with the range from 26 to 38 MMT. USDA is at 36.5 MMT, APK-Inform says 33.8 MMT, the official Ukraine government estimate is 33 MMT, and the trade union says 30 MMT. The price has jumped $25/MT in a week, indicating some shortfall and the export bid is at $236 to $275/MT.  Exports are at half the level they were at this time last year. (FarmLead; AgriCensus; USDA)