Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 3.1 percent higher and extended those gains in early week trading to rise 2.4 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week and were up 2.3 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 47.94 cents/liter (181.48 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.8 percent higher and are up 2.6 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 47.08 cents/liter (178.23 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 0.3 percent to 55.01 cents/liter (208.23 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -7.93 cents/liter (-30.01 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 2.5 percent last week and were stronger still in early week trading to gain 0.5 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 9.48 cents/liter (35.88 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week and continued that trend through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 0.6 percent while Toluene was down 3.3 percent, and Xylene was down 5.2 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 68.37 cents/liter (258.79 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 21.28 cents/liter (80.57 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week but reversed that dynamic in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 5.5 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 2.3 and up 2.3 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 3.8 percent higher at $69.59/barrel while Brent futures are up 3.6 percent to $73.6/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the West Coast of Central America seeing the largest gains (up 1 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 6 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 1 percent this week while freight from the PNW is mostly unchanged. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 1 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 27 percent lower than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher FOB offers for ethanol offset lower freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 2.9 percent this week and are down 15.7 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $703.2/MT this week, up 2.6 percent from the prior week but down 10.7 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $674.19/MT and are up 2.7 percent from last week but are down 12.1 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 0.5 percent from last week.
