Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1.2 percent higher but pared back those gains in early week trading and fell 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week and were up 0.2 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 49.05 cents/liter (185.69 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 3.4 percent higher and are up 0.2 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 48.11 cents/liter (182.11 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 3.4 percent to 59.16 cents/liter (223.95 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -11.05 cents/liter (-41.84 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 1.6 percent last week and were weaker still in early week trading to fall 0.5 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 26.12 cents/liter (98.88 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week and had a weaker tone through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 0.7 percent while Toluene was down 0.1 percent, and Xylene was unchanged. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 101.34 cents/liter (383.61 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 53.23 cents/liter (201.5 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week but erased those gains in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 2.6 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 1.9 and up 0.2 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 3 percent lower at $81.32/barrel while Brent futures are down 2.1 percent to $86.33/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to India seeing the largest gains (up 6 percent). Freight from Brazil to India saw the largest declines and is down 3 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 1 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 2 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are unchanged, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 15 percent higher than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have climbed higher. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.8 percent this week and are down 25.6 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $847.09/MT this week, up 3.3 percent from the prior week but down 14.4 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $734.91/MT and are up 1.1 percent from last week but are down 22.9 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 0.8 percent from last week.
