Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 2.5 percent higher and were firmer still in early week trading and rose 2.7 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week and were up 0.2 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 50.17 cents/liter (189.92 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 5.5 percent higher and are up 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 48.92 cents/liter (185.17 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 1.6 percent to 55.89 cents/liter (211.55 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -6.97 cents/liter (-26.38 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 0.6 percent last week and extended that rally in early week trading to gain 2.7 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 3.5 cents/liter (13.25 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but strengthened through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 2.6 percent while Toluene was up 0.9 percent, and Xylene was down 0.4 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 75.41 cents/liter (285.46 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 26.49 cents/liter (100.29 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week and continued that trend in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 1.3 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are down 1.3 and 2.6 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 3.3 percent lower at $66.19/barrel while Brent futures are down 2.8 percent to $68.41/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 4 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia seeing the largest gains (up 6 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 33 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 7 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 3 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 2 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 26 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher FOB offers for ethanol offset lower freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.9 percent this week and are down 10.9 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $741.21/MT this week, up 2.3 percent from the prior week but down 8.1 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $685.18/MT and are up 1.4 percent from last week but are down 11.4 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 2.6 percent from last week.
