Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 5.3 percent lower and extended those losses in early week trading to fall 2.5 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 57.09 cents/liter (216.1 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 6.4 percent lower but are up 0.4 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 55.12 cents/liter (208.67 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 6.3 percent to 58.66 cents/liter (222.05 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -3.53 cents/liter (-13.38 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 2 percent last week but were steady in early week trading to gain 0.1 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 21.11 cents/liter (79.91 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but were firmer through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.6 percent while Toluene was up 0.1 percent, and Xylene was up 0.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 88.62 cents/liter (335.48 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 33.5 cents/liter (126.81 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week but pulled back in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 2 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 2.5 and 2.6 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2.4 percent lower at $81.15/barrel while Brent futures are down 2.5 percent to $84.35/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 3 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to India seeing the smallest losses (down 1 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 16 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 4 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 3 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 3 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 35 percent higher than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower liquid tanker freight rates have offset slight gains in FOB ethanol offers. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 2.9 percent this week and are down 14.3 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $836.51/MT this week, up 5.2 percent from the prior week but down 1.1 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $819.6/MT and are down 2.8 percent from last week and are down 9.4 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 3.7 percent from last week.
