Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1.7 percent higher and extended those gains in early week trading and rose 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week but were down 1.1 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 50.04 cents/liter (189.44 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 4.3 percent higher but are down 0.7 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 49.84 cents/liter (188.66 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 3.2 percent to 55.82 cents/liter (211.2875 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -5.98 cents/liter (-22.63 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 5.5 percent last week but reversed course in early week trading to fall 7.7 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 7.26 cents/liter (27.47 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were higher last week but were mixed through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.2 percent while Toluene was down 0.9 percent, and Xylene was down 0.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 72.71 cents/liter (275.23 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 22.87 cents/liter (86.57 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week and fell further in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 7.8 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 4 and 4.4 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 10.2 percent lower at $55.68/barrel while Brent futures are down 10.1 percent to $58.93/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent lower on average this week with freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest declines (down 2 percent). On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 1 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 1 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 22 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher FOB offers for ethanol offset lower freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.7 percent this week and are up 5.6 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $746.34/MT this week, up 2 percent from the prior week and up 6.1 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $733.1/MT and are up 0.5 percent from last week and are up 3.7 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 2.8 percent from last week.
