Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 2.4 percent lower but firmed in early week trading and rose 0.8 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week but were up 0.9 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 66.79 cents/liter (252.82 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 2.1 percent lower but are up 1.1 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 66.11 cents/liter (250.26 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 1.3 percent to 71.78 cents/liter (271.7 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -5.66 cents/liter (-21.44 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 6.6 percent last week and added to those losses in early week trading to fall 9.5 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 6.45 cents/liter (24.43 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were higher last week but turned lower through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 0.8 percent while Toluene was up 0 percent, and Xylene was up 0 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 102.18 cents/liter (386.79 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 36.07 cents/liter (136.54 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week but are mixed in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 0.1 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 1.6 and up 1.3 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 0.8 percent lower at $77.25/barrel while Brent futures are down 1.1 percent to $80.77/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 3 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the West Coast of Central America seeing the largest gains (up 3 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia saw the largest declines and is down 7 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 2 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 5 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 1 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 2 percent lower than this same week in 2022.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower liquid tanker freight rates have offset slight gains in FOB ethanol offers. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 0.3 percent this week and are down 11.9 percent from this same week in 2022. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $997.26/MT this week, up 0.2 percent from the prior week but down 19.3 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $953.85/MT and are down 0.8 percent from last week but are down 11.6 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 0.9 percent from last week.
