Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices are higher to start the week, following last week’s mixed performance. Nearby CBOT ethanol futures are up 3.1 percent from Friday (when they finished the week up 0.5 percent) while Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices are up 0.8 percent from Friday at 40.93 cents/liter (154.94 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.9 percent lower but have taken back all those losses in early week trading. FOB Houston prices are up 1.2 percent from Friday at 40.881 cents/liter (154.75 cents/gallon), an increase of 0.498 cents/liter (1.89 cents/gallon).
FOB Santos, Brazil ethanol prices ended last week 1.5 percent lower while this week’s prices have fallen another 5.0 percent. FOB Santos ethanol prices are currently 55.724 cents/liter, or 210.94 cents/gallon.
The FOB Houston-Santos spread narrowed 2.8 percent last week to -18.282 cents/liter (-69.205 cents/gallon) and is continuing that trend this week. Prices show the spread narrowing 18.8 percent to -14.844 cents/liter (-56.191 cents/gallon) on the back of sharply lower Brazilian prices. This week’s trading puts the spread near six-month highs but more than twice its five-year average (-9.669 cents/liter or -36.6 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rebounded last week but are steady to start this week. Last week, prices rose 3.2 percent by Friday’s close but are 0.2 percent lower through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE prices are last quoted at 59.65 cents/liter (225.81 cents/gallon) and are valued at an 18.772 cents/liter premium (71.06 cents/gallon) premium to FOB Houston ethanol.
BTX component prices are mostly lower to start the week, following last week’s steady/higher trade. Benzene prices finished last week steady (up 0.1 percent) and are up another 0.3 percent so far this week. Toluene prices rose 1.4 percent last week and are 2.0 percent lower this week, while xylene prices rose 0.4 percent last week and are 0.4 percent lower this week. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 69.32 cents/liter (262.41 cents/gallon), down 0.8 percent from Friday’s close. The weighted average BTX price is 28.442 cents/liter (107.66 cents/gallon) higher than FOB Houston ethanol prices.
Following last week’s losses, gasoline and petroleum products are sharply higher to start this week. RBOB futures are up 4.6 percent (2.33 cents/liter or 8.81 cents/gallon) while 84 octane RBOB and 87 octane CBOB are 4.9 and 5.8 percent higher, respectively. WTI crude oil futures are up $4.08/barrel from last week while Brent futures have gained $4.58/barrel.
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