Home

Corn Harvest Quality Report 2017/2018

Contents

  1. Harvest Quality Highlights
  2. Introduction
  3. Quality Test Results
  4. Grade Factors
  5. Moisture
  6. Chemical Composition
  7. Physical Factors
  8. Stress Cracks
  9. 100-Kernel Weight
  10. Kernel Volume
  11. Kernel True Density
  12. Whole Kernels
  13. Horneous (Hard) Endosperm
  14. Mycotoxins
  15. Assessing the Presence of Aflatoxins and DON
  16. Background: General
  17. Background: Aflatoxins
  18. Background: Don (Deoxynivalenol) Or Vomitoxin
  19. Crop and Weather Conditions
  20. Planting and Early Growth Conditions
  21. Pollination and Grain Fill Conditions
  22. Harvest Conditions
  23. Comparison of 2016 to 2015, 2014, and 5YA
  24. U.S. Corn Production, Usage and Outlook
  25. U.S. Corn Production
  26. U.S. Corn Use and Ending Stocks
  27. Outlook
  28. Survey and Statistical Analysis Methods
  29. Overview
  30. Survey Design and Sampling
  31. Statistical Analysis
  32. Test Analysis Methods
  33. Corn Grading Factors
  34. Moisture
  35. Chemical Composition
  36. Physical Factors
  37. Mycotoxin Testing
  38. U.S. Corn Grades and Conversions
Download report

Outlook

U.S. Outlook

The record-setting size of the 2016 U.S. corn crop has created an abundant supply of corn for MY16/17. This ample supply has continued to keep downward pressure on corn prices since their peak in MY12/13. The ample supply and low prices are major factors driving the projected domestic use of corn in MY16/17 to be the highest on record.

Corn use for food, seed, and non-ethanol industrial (FSI) purposes is expected to remain largely unchanged in MY16/17 compared to MY15/16, continuing the pattern of the previous four marketing years.

Projected MY16/17 corn use for ethanol is slightly higher than the previous marketing year. The rise in projected ethanol use is influenced, in part, by low gasoline prices supporting increased domestic gasoline demand, therefore expanding the domestic ethanol market. Other factors impacting the projected ethanol use include competitive ethanol blend prices, small increases in ethanol production efficiency, and moderate increases in substitution of corn as an ethanol feedstock.

Domestic corn use for feed and residual use is expected to be 13.2 mmt higher (10.1% increase) in MY16/17 than in MY15/16. Feed demand for corn is expected to be supported by low corn prices, therefore decreasing the feed costs, and a large inventory of livestock and poultry.

U.S. corn exports during MY16/17 are projected to be about 17% higher than last year and the highest since MY07/08. This projection is supported by an ample supply and a 6.6% increase in global demand from MY15/16 to MY16/17.

MY16/17 corn ending stocks are projected to be 38.3% higher than the previous marketing year, primarily due to large corn crops in consecutive years. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 16.4%, an increase for the fourth year in a row and a level not seen since MY05/06.

International Outlook

Global Supply

Global corn production during MY16/17 is expected to be higher than MY14/15’s record-setting production, due to larger crops in both the United States and other major corn-producing countries.

Lower production for MY16/17 in China, Mexico, and Canada will be offset by greater production in Argentina, Brazil, the EU, South Africa, Southeast Asia, Ukraine, and the United States.

In addition to higher projected U.S. exports, total non-U.S. exports are expected to be higher in MY16/17 than in MY15/16.

Increased exports are also expected from the key non-U.S. exporting countries – Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine.

Global Demand

Global corn use is expected to rise from 958.5 mmt in MY15/16 to 1,021.7 mmt in MY16/17, a 6.6% annual increase.

With the exception of South Korea and Japan, corn use is anticipated to be higher in MY16/17 than in MY15/16 for the major importing countries and areas (Egypt, the EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia). In addition, corn use is also projected to increase from MY15/16 to MY16/17 for the major exporting countries (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, South Africa, Ukraine, and the United States).

A decrease in year-over-year imports is expected globally in MY16/17. An increase in imports by Turkey will be countered by decreases in projected MY16/17 corn imports in Egypt, Japan, Southeast Asia, and South Korea.